UFC 118: Preview and Predictions

We are three days away from seeing whether or not B.J. Penn can goad Frankie Edgar into a "fight" in order to get his belt back and if James Toney has more than a puncher's chance of defeating Randy Couture. Barring any last-minute injuries or problems, the fight card for UFC 118 is set in stone.

Here's a little preview and some predictions:

Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn (UFC Lightweight Title)

Will Edgar be able to pull off yet another upset? I find it hard to think so. While I believe the fight will be close at the start, a refocused and healthy Penn should be able to overwhelm Edgar in the later rounds just as he did to Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian. I'm expecting Penn to mix up his offense a bit more and Edgar to employ a similar gameplan to his original one save a more aggressive approach to brief takedowns. Penn via submission in round three.

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

It still baffles me that some are surprisingly giving Toney more than a puncher's chance in this one, claiming that Couture's increasing age has done a number on his reflexes and timing. In all honesty, a 50-something Couture years removed from the sport would probably beat Toney with ease as well. I'm giving this fight a minute and a half at the most before it's over. Couture will do exactly as he says he will: throw an overhand right, take Toney down and pound him out before sinking in a fight-ending rear-naked choke.



Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

If the UFC decided to match these two directly after Florian's loss to Penn last summer, I would have likely picked Maynard to grind out a decision. I can't say the same after Florian's performances against Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi. Training with Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans and a wealth of other wrestlers has benefited Florian's age-old wrestling problem greatly. I'm not saying that Florian is going to be taking Maynard down at will, but his accurate striking and solid takedown defense should be enough to hand Maynard his first professional loss.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

This was a hard fight to pick. One would think that Maia would take Miranda down and swiftly lock in a submission just as he's done to almost everyone else in the UFC's middleweight division. However, Miranda's style prevents a plethora of problems for Maia, both standing and on the ground. Let it be known that even though he was TKO'd by a streaking Gerald Harris, Miranda is a legit BJJ black belt on the ground. His wrestling is better than Maia's and the ability to stand back up could prove problematic for Maia on the feet. As much as I want to pick Miranda to win a close decision, Maia is more than likely to score a submission with his patented tricks on the mat.

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

My favorite for UFC 118's fight of the night is this matchup. I expect the majority of the bout to take place on the feet, where Diaz's peppering boxing style learned from his older brother will go up against Davis' pro boxing experience and fight-ending power. I expect Davis to win the exchanges on the feet but I feel that Diaz's chin is good enough to absorb some punishment before ultimately getting the fight to the ground where Davis is crafty but not as slick as Diaz, who represents Stockton well with another submission win.

Prelim picks: Joe Lauzon, Nik Lentz, Dan Miller, Nick Oscipzak, and Amilcar Alves. I'll have a recap and thoughts on the event up tomorrow morning/afternoon.